Strategies

The "Action" column in the daily reversal levels tables gives guidance for trading whenever there is a special situation:
* Buy => Mode turns bullish. Buy at next Open or put in a limit order to buy on weakness.
* Sell => Mode turns bearish. Sell at next Open.
* Weak Buy (wBuy) => Mode turns bullish, but MoM still points down. Weak Buy signal. Buy at next Open or put in a limit order to buy on weakness.
* Speculative Buy (spBuy) => Good potential for a short term bounce. Can be used with QuickTarget.
* Speculative Buy+ (spBuy+) => Good potential for a short and medium term bounce. Can be used with QuickTarget.
* Speculative Buy++ (spBuy++) => Very good potential for a short and medium term bounce. Can be used with QuickTarget.
* Partial profits (pP) => Good chance to take some money off the table. Can also be used for shorting with QuickTarget.
* Partial profits+ (pP+) => Very good chance to take some money off the table. Can also be used for shorting with QuickTarget.
* Add => Bullish continuation. Can add to long positions if you took partial profits earlier on.
* Add short (AddSh) => Bearish continuation. Can be used to add to short positions.
* Divergence Buy (dBuy) => Bullish divergence. MoM indicates increasing upside potential. Can be used as a speculative early Buy.
* Divergence Sell (dSell) => Bearish divergence. MoM indicates increasing downside potential. Probably a failing rally. Can be used to take some profits or exit early.
* Empty => no action. Hold if mode is bullish/green. Stay out (or short) if mode is bearish/red.

Trading styles:

* Risk-averse investors and new users should focus on the standard buy and sell signals and avoid using speculative buys or short selling. This is a trend following method, which aims to participate in the bulk of a move with a minimum of risk. So we will not buy at the bottom and there will be some “give-back” at the end of a move. Once you start using the more advanced strategies it is still recommended to keep a good portion of your portfolio in this basic strategy.

* Speculative buying opportunities (spBuy, spBuy+ and spBuy++) offer the potential to purchase stocks shortly after a major low. When implementing this strategy, consider taking profits when the stock nears its daily reversal level and holding the rest for a possible breakout above the daily reversal level (which would become a standard buy signal). Note: struggling companies may not recover, so it is advisable to use this method only on ETFs or on stocks of financially stable companies.

* Short term swing trading can be done with all the spBuy signals, and the QuickTarget is then used as a limit sell price to take profits. This target can be reached within days, allowing you to earn a quick 2-5%. The pP and pP+ signals can be used for swing trading on the short side, with the QuickTarget used as a limit buy price to take your profits. Additional information about this method is available as a strategy article for subscribers.

* Short selling for medium and longer term can be done using Sell, pP, pP+ and dSell signals. Shorting is not for everybody and requires some experience. If you believe the market (or a specific stock) is overvalued and likely to decline, these signals can be used to initiate a short position. Profits (or losses) on short positions are best taken when the next regular buy signal appears. The spBuy and dBuy signals can also be used to take some quick early profits on short positions.

More detailed information and examples are available in the strategy articles for subscribers.

Note: QuickTargets are available for subscribers only.

The MoM indicator

The MoM indicator displays market momentum on a numeric scale ranging from +10 to -10, acting as a kind of market thermometer.
The following levels correspond to various market moods:
* +8 to +10: very optimistic – euphoric
* +5 to +8: optimistic
* +3 to +5 : positive
* -3 to +3: neutral
* -3 to -5: negative
* -8 to -5: pessimistic
* -10 to -8: very pessimistic – depressed

In addition to the level itself, the direction of the MoM indicator is also important. Here is what to look for:
* In a healthy market advance, the MoM indicator generally rises along with the stock or index.
* If the MoM indicator begins to decline after a significant rally (in green mode), it is an indication of a possible peak or the start of a consolidation phase. This changes the market mode to light green.
* If the MoM indcator begins to rise after a sustained slide (in red mode), it is an indication of a possible bottom or the start of a sideways phase. This changes the market mode to pink.
* For a rising stock or index, MoM is typically between +3 and +10, and the mode may change between green and light green several times before a sell signal happens.
* For a declining stock or index, MoM usually fluctuates between -3 and -10, and the mode may switch between red and pink several times before a buy signal is generated.
* Ordinary pullbacks usually end with MoM bottoming out in the neutral zone (-3 to +3) before turning back up.
* Bear market rallies often end with MoM peaking in the neutral zone (-3 to +3) before turning back down.
* Major peaks often occur with MoM reaching the high +8 zone. When this happens, there is an increased risk of a sudden pullback or the start of a sideways pause.
* Major lows are often marked by MoM dropping into the -8 zone. This may be a good time to consider buying a starter position. However, it's not uncommon to see a second low or double bottom several weeks later, acompanied by bullish divergence (MoM making its second bottom at a higher level). It's important not to rush in and try to buy on a down day.

15 comments:

  1. I'm confused about the 48 different strategies... is it possible that all 48 signals can give buy or sell signals on the same etf such a spy at different times? Could you get different buy signal from a different strategies 5 days in a row? - each buy from a different strategy with different parameters?

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    1. Hi Greg.
      There are not 48 different strategies, but 48 "strategy numbers", which are specific situations that describe proper course of action. In the beginning you would only use a few them, as described in the "basic method" a little higher up on the page. In basic method you only use the strategy #33-40 and negate all the rest. You buy when there is buy signal and hold until there is sell signal. Once you all well grounded in basic method the other signals will start making sense too and then you can start refining your approach.

      Danny

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    2. ... so basically you first decide on what type of trading style suits you (per descriptions above under "Trading approach") and then you know which strategy # are important for you. E.g. If you want to try the basic method then you wouldn't use the spBuy signals. The strategy numbers offer details for advanced use. If you are just starting then it is better to focus on the "Action"" column, which gives more simplified advice. Then you will quickly pick up the rest too. And you are always welcome to ask...
      Danny

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  2. Thanks... could u maybe make a video explaining the system... I that would be helpful.

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    1. Hi Greg,
      I could, but I am currently adding some new symbols in the "Action" column, which will gradually replace the strategy numbers (numbered strategies are more difficult to memorize for users), so the video would go out of date very quickly. The best way to pick up the method is to start watching it and then things will gradually fall into place. When the current improvements are done with I will make a presentation that clarifies everything a new user needs to know to get started. It is a work in progress, but I appreciate feedback because it tells me what to do to make the tables easier to use.

      Dan

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  3. $22 per month with discounts for 6 month or 1 year subscriptions. See: http://www.reversallevels.com/p/subscribe.html

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  4. What is the basis of the MoM indicator? Astrological, technical, fundamental, all of the above? If you can shed some light without giving away your secret sauce, it would be highly appreciated. Trying to understand why your MoM indicator is different from other several momentum based trade services?

    Secondly, can you share your performance results since 2015 or 2016 or whatever you can? I apologize if it is published somewhere on this site. Please direct me there if you don't mind, if it is.

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    1. The MoM indicator is technical price based. No astrology or fundamentals. You can see the performance of our signals on a day to day basis in the P/L column of the demo portfolio we post every day. Blue for profits, orange for losses. The day column shows you how many trading days ago the latest Buy or Sell signal was given, which makes it easy for you to verify the P/L numbers we post.
      You can pick up samples of the files our subscribers get, covering 3000 shares, from 2015 til now. So you can see how it worked in different periods. Samples are at the bottom of this page: https://www.reversallevels.com/p/subscribe.html

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  5. I notice that some of the cells in the MOM indicator have a background of yellow which is somewhat different than most of the cells which have a white background....I did not find the explanation for the difference. Could you tell me where it is clarified?

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    1. Hi HoneyDun. When MoM has a yellow background it means it is reversing direction from the previous day. The direction of MoM is at least as important as the level. E.g. a stock in weak bullish mode (pale green) changes to fully bullish (dark green) when MoM turns up. That's why it's highlighted with a yellow background to make easier to spot them.

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  6. hi do you offer any service for indian stock /indices if yes i would like to subscribe thx

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    1. Hi ak. Indian Sensex and Nifty indexes are included in our service. Also the Indian Rupee (USDINR). No individual Indian stocks.

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  7. Hello-

    Just confirming signals such dBuy and SpBuy remain in their original position (i.e. short) until they officially flip to buy, for tracking? Just noticed a dBuy from yesterday is still showing as sold today. Thanks!

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    1. The P/L% is calculated on the basis of the standard Buy and Sell signals (including the wBuy and wSell). Those signals occur only when the Mode changes from red to green (for Buys) or green to red (for Sells), so they require a crossing above or below the given reversal level. That's the backbone of the system.
      The spBuy and dBuy signals do not change the Mode, a stock giving SpBuy or dBuy stays in bearish mode until it makes a proper Buy signal. Those are signals for advanced users. For those signals we have to use some judgement on whether we want to take them or not. That's where the P/L% comes in. E.g. stock in bearish mode (red) gives a spBuy signal. We will look how much this stock is down since the last regular Sell and that's what the P/L% shows us. If the stock is for example showing P/L of 21% then it is down 21% since its most recent Sell. If the company is not headed for bankruptcy then it is a great chance to use the spBuy to get back in at a much lower price than we have sold previously. If P/L% shows 3% then the stock is not down much and we may decide to wait. So, reversal levels is not a mechanical trading system where you blindly follow signals. It is computer assisted trading where you will need to use judgement on whether to take spBuy or pP signals. See also: https://www.reversallevels.com/p/faq.html

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    2. Makes sense, thank you for clarifying.

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