Strategies

The "Action" column in the daily reversal levels tables gives guidance for trading whenever there is a special situation:
* Buy => Mode turns bullish. Buy at next Open or put in a limit order to buy on weakness.
* Sell => Mode turns bearish. Sell at next Open.
* Weak Buy (wBuy) => Mode turns bullish, but MoM still points down. Weak Buy signal. Buy at next Open or put in a limit order to buy on weakness.
* Speculative Buy (spBuy) => Good potential for a short term bounce. Can be used with QuickTarget.
* Speculative Buy+ (spBuy+) => Good potential for a short and medium term bounce. Can be used with QuickTarget.
* Speculative Buy++ (spBuy++) => Very good potential for a short and medium term bounce. Can be used with QuickTarget.
* Partial profits (pP) => Good chance to take some money off the table. Can also be used for shorting with QuickTarget.
* Partial profits+ (pP+) => Very good chance to take some money off the table. Can also be used for shorting with QuickTarget.
* Add => Bullish continuation. Can add to long positions if you took partial profits earlier on.
* Add short (AddSh) => Bearish continuation. Can be used to add to short positions.
* Divergence Buy (dBuy) => Bullish divergence. MoM indicates increasing upside potential. Can be used as a speculative early Buy.
* Divergence Sell (dSell) => Bearish divergence. MoM indicates increasing downside potential. Probably a failing rally. Can be used to take some profits or exit early.
* Empty => no action. Hold if mode is bullish/green. Stay out (or short) if mode is bearish/red.

Trading styles:

* Conservative investors and new users just trade the normal buy and sell signals and can negate the info about speculative buys and short selling. This is a trend following method, so we will not buy at the bottom and there will be some “give-back” at the end of a move. The aim is to participate in the bulk of a move with a minimum of risk. Even if you use the more advanced strategies it is recommended to keep a good portion of your portfolio in this basic strategy.

* Speculative buying opportunities (spBuy, spBuy+ and spBuy++) often allow us to pick up stocks within days of a major low. You can take some profits when the stock comes close to its daily reversal level and hold the rest for a possible break out above the daily reversal level (which makes it a normal buy ). Note: struggling companies may never recover, so this method is best used on ETFs or on stocks of companies that are in good financial shape.

* Short term swing trading can be done with all the spBuy signals. You can then use the QuickTarget as a limit Sell price to take your profits. This will often be reached within days, allowing you to pick up a quick 2-5%. The pP and pP+ signals can be used for swing trading on the short side. You can then use QuickTarget as a limit Buy price to take your profits. More about this method in an article in the subscribers pages.

* Short selling for medium and longer term can be done on Sell, pP, pP+ and dSell signals. Shorting is not for everybody. If you are convinced the market (or a particular stock) is overvalued and ready for a drop, then you can use these signals to go short. Profit (or loss) on short positions is best taken when the next regular buy signal appears. The spBuy and dBuy signals can be used as an early take profits on short positions.

Note: QuickTargets are available for subscribers only.

More in depth articles and examples can be found in the subscribers pages.

The MoM indicator

The MoM indicator shows market momentum on a numeric scale between +10 and -10. It can be seen as a kind of market thermometer.
Various levels in the MoM indicator correspond to market mood as follows:
* +8 to +10: very optimistic – euphoric
* +5 to +8: optimistic
* +3 to +5 : positive
* -3 to +3: neutral
* -3 to -5: negative
* -8 to -5: pessimistic
* -10 to -8: very pessimistic – depressed

Besides the level itself, we also pay attention to the direction. Here is what to look for:
* In a healthy bullish move, the MoM indicator is normally rising together with the stock or index.
* If MoM starts inching down after a significant rally (green mode) it is an indication of a possible peak or the start of a consolidation phase. This changes the market mode to light green.
* If MoM starts inching up after a sustained slide (red mode) it is an indication of a possible bottom or the start of a sideways phase. This changes the market mode to pink.
* For a rising stock or index MoM is typically hovering between +3 and +10, and Mode can change between green and light green several times before a Sell signal occurs.
* For a declining stock or index MoM usually fluctuates between -3 and -10, and Mode can switch between red and pink several times before a Buy signal is generated.
* Ordinary pullbacks generally end with MoM bottoming out in the neutral zone ( -3 to +3) before turning back up.
* Bear market rallies often end with MoM peaking out in the neutral zone ( -3 to +3) before turning back down.
* Major peaks often occur with MoM reaching the high +8 zone. When this happens there is an increasing risk for a sudden pullback or the start of a sideways pause.
* Major lows are often marked by MoM dropping into the -8 zone. We can get ready to buy when this happens, but not rarely we will see a second lower low with bullish divergence. So, don't rush in and try to buy on a down day.

7 comments:

  1. I'm confused about the 48 different strategies... is it possible that all 48 signals can give buy or sell signals on the same etf such a spy at different times? Could you get different buy signal from a different strategies 5 days in a row? - each buy from a different strategy with different parameters?

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    1. Hi Greg.
      There are not 48 different strategies, but 48 "strategy numbers", which are specific situations that describe proper course of action. In the beginning you would only use a few them, as described in the "basic method" a little higher up on the page. In basic method you only use the strategy #33-40 and negate all the rest. You buy when there is buy signal and hold until there is sell signal. Once you all well grounded in basic method the other signals will start making sense too and then you can start refining your approach.

      Danny

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    2. ... so basically you first decide on what type of trading style suits you (per descriptions above under "Trading approach") and then you know which strategy # are important for you. E.g. If you want to try the basic method then you wouldn't use the spBuy signals. The strategy numbers offer details for advanced use. If you are just starting then it is better to focus on the "Action"" column, which gives more simplified advice. Then you will quickly pick up the rest too. And you are always welcome to ask...
      Danny

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  2. Thanks... could u maybe make a video explaining the system... I that would be helpful.

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    1. Hi Greg,
      I could, but I am currently adding some new symbols in the "Action" column, which will gradually replace the strategy numbers (numbered strategies are more difficult to memorize for users), so the video would go out of date very quickly. The best way to pick up the method is to start watching it and then things will gradually fall into place. When the current improvements are done with I will make a presentation that clarifies everything a new user needs to know to get started. It is a work in progress, but I appreciate feedback because it tells me what to do to make the tables easier to use.

      Dan

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  3. What is your paid service charges?

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    1. $22 per month with discounts for 6 month or 1 year subscriptions. See: http://www.reversallevels.com/p/subscribe.html

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