Friday, November 17, 2023

Charts Nov 17, 2023

Little change in SPX. Could this market suddenly add another 100 points? Yes. We can see that any little pullback seems to get bought immediately. Some traders are still scrambling to get in on a move they have missed. So, it's not easy to call the short term at this point. A bit of a pullback is my base scenario, but it could be short and shallow.

Market situation:

* 395 SPX stocks in bullish mode = small downtick and back below 80%. That's a bit of a red flag on an up day with a new multi-month closing high.
* BullsPower at 26, BearsPower at 20. Bulls with the upper hand, but a new tug of war would start if BullsPower drops below 25.
* 385 stocks with upward MoM (green dashed line). Downtick, making a small bearish divergence.
* The dW climbs to 4334 and the market keeps closing above the Envelope.
* Number of pP signals at 155. Stays very elevated. +10% readings usually set the stage for "a" top.

* BMO keeps sliding down.
* BUD and ELC stay bullish.
* Blue Snake keeps catching up on prices. Look for price action to come within the narrower blue channel.

* SPX Rotator is climbing.
* The market is still too far above the Bands. A stalling market is one of the ways to fix that.

* SwX is green - bullish.
* Daily MoM keeps climbing in the +8 peak zone. It's visibly slowing and could turn down today.
* The rate of change since the late October low is clearly unsustainable. Once that green trendline gives way the drop could be rather sharp.

* Icebergs chart is showing some dramatic changes since we had that ultra-rare "pink salmon" bottom fishing opportunity in late Oct.
* And this week we got "gold on the beach" with green mountain making its comeback. While "gold" anywhere in the chart usually indicates a peak, gold on the beach normally foretells "gold on the mountain" later on. This would mean a higher high is coming up (higher than the current 4500) later this year or next year. Also note the temperature has warmed (orange sky). That was a long cold spell.
* The last case of gold on the beach was in February. And even though the market dipped after that high it did go on to gold on the mountain several months later.
* For more info about Icebergs charts:

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