Friday, November 3, 2023

Charts Nov 3, 2023

SPX keeps surging and is already above the 4300 level we pointed to a few days ago. What next? A 200 point rally in 5 days is something we have not seen in quite a while. Often this is the first thrust in a (much) longer advance. But it can also be another bear market rally. Some of the most powerful rallies in history have been snap back rallies in an ongoing decline.

Market situation:

* 237 SPX stocks in bullish mode = strong uptick and almost back above 50%.
* BullsPower at 14, BearsPower at 31. Bulls are throwing in all their weight. But the bearish camp is not counted out yet. And it's still a pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
* 455 stocks with upward MoM (green dashed line). Above 90%. Ongoing upswing with increasing risk of a pullback.
* Market closed just above the dW at 4313. That hasn't happened in months. But it's only by a few points, so the rally could easily sputter a bit at this point.
* Number of spBuy signals falls back to 68. Late Oct was clearly a tradeable bottom.

* BMO keeps going up.
* ELC is turning up too.
* The Repellor line at 4353 is one of the remaining hurdles to take.

* SPX Rotator is going up with both components improving fast now.
* Market is surging towards the top of the Bands already. That means the easy gains are probably in and around 4376, the current top of the Bands, overhead resistance is likely to be strong. Once the Bands turn back up (if they do so) there will appear more room to rise.

* SwX turns green bullish for the first time since the declines started in early August. Potentially this sets the stage for a multi-month rally, but that's not a done deal at this point.
* Daily MoM goes up with bullish divergence.
* The trendlines have not been of great use recently. Trendlines with only two touches that are only a month apart are never very strong. I draw them in because they can always become relevant later on.

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